Analysts Say the Launch Crunch Is Worse Than Expected

A looming crisis in launch capacity appears to be more serious than analysts had expected, according to a new assessment. The item that flagged it gave few details of the underlying data, so the size of the shortfall and its timeline are not clear from the summary alone.

The analysis also touches on SpaceX's Starship. Its authors found no evidence that the vehicle will be used to launch traditional satellites. For operators who had hoped Starship could take pressure off the existing rocket fleet, that is a significant caveat, since it means the heavy-lift vehicle may not solve the problem for conventional satellite missions.

The findings leave open how quickly the gap will be felt and which customers will be hit first. Until the full analysis is available, the most reliable takeaway is that the expected easing of launch constraints looks less certain than it did a short time ago. We will update this story if more detail on the assessment emerges.